Pair #10830

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAF-27-TTU

Will Texas Tech win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Texas Tech
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 367362

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Texas Tech wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-TTU

Will Texas Tech qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Texas Tech
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7622

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Texas Tech is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -60.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6100 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: 194
Hurdle yield: 4.45%
Excess yield: -64.47% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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