KXNCAAF-27-ALA
Will Alabama win the College Football Playoff National Championship?
Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Alabama
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 278497
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-ALA
Will Alabama qualify for the College Football Playoffs?
Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Alabama
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5366
YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.3500
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-48.70%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.4100
+ ~$0.0185 est. fees
Days to maturity:
195
Hurdle yield:
4.45%
Excess yield:
-53.16%
BELOW HURDLE
Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z