Pair #10818

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAF-27-MISS

Will Ole Miss win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Ole Miss
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 408005

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ole Miss wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MISS

Will Ole Miss qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Ole Miss
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8046

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ole Miss is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -45.29% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3600 + ~$0.0179 est. fees
Days to maturity: 194
Hurdle yield: 4.45%
Excess yield: -49.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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