Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNCAAF-27-AUB
Will Auburn win the College Football Playoff National Championship?
Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Auburn
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 64873
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Auburn wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-AUB
Will Auburn qualify for the College Football Playoffs?
Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Auburn
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3526
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Auburn is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-17.31%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1000
+ ~$0.0063 est. fees
Days to maturity:
194
Hurdle yield:
4.45%
Excess yield:
-21.76%
BELOW HURDLE