Pair #10815

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAF-27-TXAM

Will Texas A&M win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Texas A&M
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 118986

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

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Rules

If Texas A&M wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-TXAM

Will Texas A&M qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Texas A&M
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5563

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.3900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Texas A&M is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -45.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3600 + ~$0.0187 est. fees
Days to maturity: 194
Hurdle yield: 4.45%
Excess yield: -49.80% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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