Pair #10814

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAF-27-MIA

Will Miami (FL) win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Miami (FL)
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 445622

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Miami (FL) wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MIA

Will Miami (FL) qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Miami (FL)
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2244

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Miami (FL) is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -62.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6600 + ~$0.0189 est. fees
Days to maturity: 194
Hurdle yield: 4.45%
Excess yield: -66.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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