Pair #10813

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAF-27-OSU

Will Ohio St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Ohio St.
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 356004

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ohio St. wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-OSU

Will Ohio St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Ohio St.
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3239

YES ask: 0.7400
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ohio St. is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -60.85% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6300 + ~$0.0203 est. fees
Days to maturity: 195
Hurdle yield: 4.45%
Excess yield: -65.30% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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