Pair #10812

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAF-27-ND

Will Notre Dame win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Notre Dame
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 451483

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Notre Dame wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-ND

Will Notre Dame qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Notre Dame
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10670

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Notre Dame is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -65.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7600 + ~$0.0148 est. fees
Days to maturity: 195
Hurdle yield: 4.45%
Excess yield: -70.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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