Pair #108

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLDRAFT1ST-26-1-DEN

Will Denver make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft?

Series: KXNFLDRAFT1ST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-24T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4968

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver is the team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN

Will Denver be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4110

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:28Z

Reasoning: The 2026 NFL Draft occurs before the 2026-27 season. The #1 pick is awarded to a team based on the prior season's record, not the upcoming season's playoff qualification. These events are independent — making the playoffs does not affect the draft pick, and the draft pick outcome does not determine playoff qualification.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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