Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NYJ
Will New York J win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: New York J
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 101005
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If New York J wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-NYJ
Will New York J be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?
Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: New York J
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 33700
YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If New York J is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] To win the AFC Championship, Denver must have qualified for and participated in the playoffs. So winning the AFC Championship logically necessitates being a playoff qualifier. The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-18.98%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1200
+ ~$0.0074 est. fees
Days to maturity:
208
Hurdle yield:
4.46%
Excess yield:
-23.44%
BELOW HURDLE