Pair #10788

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXSB-27-JAC

Will Jacksonville win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Jacksonville
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 408850

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jacksonville wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-JAC

Will Jacksonville win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Jacksonville
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 23146

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jacksonville wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Winning the Super Bowl (Pro Football Championship) requires winning the AFC Championship game first. So if Denver wins the Super Bowl, they must have won the AFC Championship. The reverse does not hold — winning the AFC Championship does not guarantee winning the Super Bowl.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0065 est. fees
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -14.91% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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