Pair #10785

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXSB-27-LV

Will Las Vegas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2035256

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Las Vegas wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-LV

Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 50074

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Las Vegas is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Winning the Super Bowl (Pro Football Championship) requires making the playoffs. So if Denver wins the championship, they must have been a playoff qualifier. However, making the playoffs does not guarantee winning the championship.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -27.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000 + ~$0.0112 est. fees
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -32.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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