Pair #10782

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXSB-27-LV

Will Las Vegas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2035256

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Las Vegas wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-LV

Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 221783

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Las Vegas wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Winning the Super Bowl (Pro Football Championship) requires winning the AFC Championship game first. So if Denver wins the Super Bowl, they must have won the AFC Championship. The reverse does not hold — winning the AFC Championship does not guarantee winning the Super Bowl.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -5.24% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -9.70% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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