Pair #1077

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DLIP

Valspar Championship: Will David Lipsky finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: David Lipsky
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6311

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Lipsky finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DLIP

Valspar Championship: Will David Lipsky finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: David Lipsky
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11805

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9500

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Lipsky finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:16:50Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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