Pair #10764

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-BUF

Will Buffalo have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Buffalo
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5832

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Buffalo has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-BUF

Will Buffalo be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Buffalo
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1335

YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.7800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Buffalo is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] If Denver has the best regular season record in the NFL, they would necessarily qualify for the playoffs. However, making the playoffs does not imply having the best record — teams can qualify with lesser records.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -62.19% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7200 + ~$0.0160 est. fees
Days to maturity: 207
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -66.65% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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