Pair #10763

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXSB-27-BUF

Will Buffalo win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Buffalo
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2112186

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

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Rules

If Buffalo wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-BUF

Will Buffalo win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Buffalo
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 162440

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Buffalo wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Winning the Super Bowl (Pro Football Championship) requires winning the AFC Championship game first. So if Denver wins the Super Bowl, they must have won the AFC Championship. The reverse does not hold — winning the AFC Championship does not guarantee winning the Super Bowl.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -15.38% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0129 est. fees
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -19.84% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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