Antecedent (if this happens)
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-BAL
Will Baltimore have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?
Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8406
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Baltimore has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-BAL
Will Baltimore be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?
Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1132
YES ask: 0.7200
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Baltimore is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] If Denver has the best regular season record in the NFL, they would necessarily qualify for the playoffs. However, making the playoffs does not imply having the best record — teams can qualify with lesser records.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-58.46%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.6300
+ ~$0.0198 est. fees
Days to maturity:
208
Hurdle yield:
4.46%
Excess yield:
-62.92%
BELOW HURDLE