Pair #10759

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXSB-27-BAL

Will Baltimore win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1308131

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Baltimore wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-BAL

Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 77723

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Baltimore wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Winning the Super Bowl (Pro Football Championship) requires winning the AFC Championship game first. So if Denver wins the Super Bowl, they must have won the AFC Championship. The reverse does not hold — winning the AFC Championship does not guarantee winning the Super Bowl.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -13.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800 + ~$0.0112 est. fees
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -18.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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