Pair #10752

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXSB-27-PIT

Will Pittsburgh win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Pittsburgh
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 523638

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Pittsburgh wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-PIT

Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Pittsburgh
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 198894

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Pittsburgh wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Winning the Super Bowl (Pro Football Championship) requires winning the AFC Championship game first. So if Denver wins the Super Bowl, they must have won the AFC Championship. The reverse does not hold — winning the AFC Championship does not guarantee winning the Super Bowl.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -3.76% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -8.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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