Antecedent (if this happens)
KXSB-27-SF
Will San Francisco win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?
Series: KXSB
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1707764
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If San Francisco wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-SF
Will San Francisco be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?
Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3374
YES ask: 0.6000
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If San Francisco is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Winning the Super Bowl (Pro Football Championship) requires making the playoffs. So if Denver wins the championship, they must have been a playoff qualifier. However, making the playoffs does not guarantee winning the championship.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-54.14%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.5600
+ ~$0.0195 est. fees
Days to maturity:
214
Hurdle yield:
4.46%
Excess yield:
-58.60%
BELOW HURDLE