Pair #10749

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-SF

Will San Francisco have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4025

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If San Francisco has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-SF

Will San Francisco be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3374

YES ask: 0.6000
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If San Francisco is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] If Denver has the best regular season record in the NFL, they would necessarily qualify for the playoffs. However, making the playoffs does not imply having the best record — teams can qualify with lesser records.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -55.62% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5700 + ~$0.0188 est. fees
Days to maturity: 208
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -60.08% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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