Pair #10743

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXSB-27-CIN

Will Cincinnati win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Cincinnati
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2154371

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cincinnati wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-CIN

Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Cincinnati
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 236030

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cincinnati wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Winning the Super Bowl (Pro Football Championship) requires winning the AFC Championship game first. So if Denver wins the Super Bowl, they must have won the AFC Championship. The reverse does not hold — winning the AFC Championship does not guarantee winning the Super Bowl.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -7.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0078 est. fees
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -12.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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