Pair #10733

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-LAC

Will Los Angeles C have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2492

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Los Angeles C has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-LAC

Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29351

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Los Angeles C wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] If Denver has the best record in the entire NFL, they necessarily have the best record in their division (the AFC West), so they must win the AFC West division title. The reverse does not hold — Denver could win the AFC West without having the league's best record.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -36.86% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2800 + ~$0.0179 est. fees
Days to maturity: 207
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -41.32% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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