Pair #10728

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-LAC

Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 104135

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Los Angeles C wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-LAC

Will Los Angeles C be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3683

YES ask: 0.6500
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.6500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Los Angeles C is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] To win the AFC Championship, Denver must have qualified for and participated in the playoffs. So winning the AFC Championship logically necessitates being a playoff qualifier. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -54.32% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5400 + ~$0.0228 est. fees
Days to maturity: 208
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -58.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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