Pair #10711

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXSB-27-HOU

Will Houston win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Houston
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1231675

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Houston wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-HOU

Will Houston win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Houston
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 222815

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Houston wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Winning the Super Bowl (Pro Football Championship) requires winning the AFC Championship game first. So if Denver wins the Super Bowl, they must have won the AFC Championship. The reverse does not hold — winning the AFC Championship does not guarantee winning the Super Bowl.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -12.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0083 est. fees
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -16.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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