Pair #1071

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DMCC

Valspar Championship: Will Denny McCarthy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2815

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denny McCarthy finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DMCC

Valspar Championship: Will Denny McCarthy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14318

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denny McCarthy finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:16:50Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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