Pair #10705

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXSB-27-CLE

Will Cleveland win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Cleveland
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 404958

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cleveland wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-CLE

Will Cleveland win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Cleveland
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 73768

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cleveland wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Winning the Super Bowl (Pro Football Championship) requires winning the AFC Championship game first. So if Denver wins the Super Bowl, they must have won the AFC Championship. The reverse does not hold — winning the AFC Championship does not guarantee winning the Super Bowl.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -1.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -6.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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