Pair #10701

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-MBAL

Will Matthew Baldwin win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matthew Baldwin
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 13651

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew Baldwin wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MBAL

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Baldwin finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthew Baldwin
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1665

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew Baldwin finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.37% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -98.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

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