Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-HLI
Will Hao-Tong Li lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 18243
YES ask: 0.0080
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0080
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hao-Tong Li is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-THOC26-HLI
Will Hao-Tong Li win the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 449890
YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9970
Last: 0.0040
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hao-Tong Li wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
0.80%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9990
+ ~$0.0006 est. fees
Days to maturity:
17
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-3.43%
BELOW HURDLE