Pair #10687

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-BCAU

Will Bud Cauley win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 264814

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9970
Last: 0.0040

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bud Cauley wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BCAU

The Open Championship: Will Bud Cauley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 939

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bud Cauley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0770 + ~$0.0054 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

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