Pair #10686

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BCAU

The Open Championship: Will Bud Cauley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 939

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bud Cauley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BCAU

The Open Championship: Will Bud Cauley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1285

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bud Cauley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -92.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0149 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -96.24% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

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