Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-GKOC
Will Greg Koch lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Greg Koch
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1089
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Greg Koch is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-GKOC
Valspar Championship: Will Greg Koch make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Greg Koch
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3383
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Greg Koch makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:16:34Z
Reasoning: Leading at the end of Round 2 means the player completed Round 2, and the cut is made after Round 2, so the leader necessarily makes the cut. Making the cut does not imply leading after Round 2.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A