Pair #1068

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-GKOC

Will Greg Koch lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Greg Koch
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1089

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Greg Koch is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-GKOC

Valspar Championship: Will Greg Koch make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Greg Koch
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3383

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Greg Koch makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:16:34Z

Reasoning: Leading at the end of Round 2 means the player completed Round 2, and the cut is made after Round 2, so the leader necessarily makes the cut. Making the cut does not imply leading after Round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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