Pair #10675

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-RHEN

Will Russell Henley win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1029722

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0170

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Russell Henley wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-RHEN

The Open Championship: Will Russell Henley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6563

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Russell Henley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3040 + ~$0.0163 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

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