Pair #10671

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SLOW

The Open Championship: Will Shane Lowry finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4310

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SLOW

The Open Championship: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6623

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -90.43% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0155 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -94.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

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