Pair #10665

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MFIT

The Open Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 10376

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Fitzpatrick has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 94908

YES ask: 0.0290
NO ask: 0.9790
Last: 0.0290

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.2190 + ~$0.0127 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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