Pair #10664

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MFIT

The Open Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 34745

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.4800
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MFIT

The Open Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 10376

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.76% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3200 + ~$0.0269 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.99% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue