Pair #10660

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 20870

YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 9278

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1300
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0233 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

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