Pair #10656

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-HMAT

The Open Championship: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1690

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-HMAT

The Open Championship: Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 5335

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400 + ~$0.0271 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

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