Pair #10652

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11511

YES ask: 0.0120
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0080

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 532196

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9910
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -18.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0090 + ~$0.0008 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -23.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue