Pair #1065

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-JHIG

Valspar Championship: Will Joe Highsmith make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Joe Highsmith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1536

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joe Highsmith makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JHIG

Valspar Championship: Will Joe Highsmith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Joe Highsmith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1507

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joe Highsmith finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:16:34Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish, and finishing top 10 does imply making the cut but that direction is B→A which would make top10 the antecedent. However, finishing top 10 does necessitate making the cut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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