Pair #10648

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11112

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 10383

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -96.22% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400 + ~$0.0249 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

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