Pair #10641

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MLEE

Will Min Woo Lee lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 59263

YES ask: 0.0180
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0180

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MLEE

The Open Championship: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3469

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.46% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1760 + ~$0.0106 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -101.69% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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