Pair #10640

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MLEE

The Open Championship: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3469

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MLEE

The Open Championship: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5325

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -96.74% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600 + ~$0.0239 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.97% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

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