Pair #10631

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-TFLE

The Open Championship: Will Tommy Fleetwood make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2858

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 77438

YES ask: 0.0320
NO ask: 0.9770
Last: 0.0320

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.2220 + ~$0.0129 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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