Pair #10630

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-TFLE

The Open Championship: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 20606

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-TFLE

The Open Championship: Will Tommy Fleetwood make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2858

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.68% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3000 + ~$0.0268 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.91% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

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