Pair #10617

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 80378

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 8414

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3500 + ~$0.0297 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.13% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

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