Pair #10616

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7716

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 8414

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5100 + ~$0.0259 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

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