Pair #10612

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CAME

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8502

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CAME

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 14975

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4000 + ~$0.0294 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z

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