Pair #10608

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JROS

Will Justin Rose lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 34048

YES ask: 0.0210
NO ask: 0.9820
Last: 0.0210

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JROS

The Open Championship: Will Justin Rose finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 13415

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:26Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -91.42% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1120 + ~$0.0092 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -95.65% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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