Pair #106

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26DNJOKU-DEN

What will be David Njoku's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-09-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 10792

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If David Njoku's next team is Denver before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN

Will Denver be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3687

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:28Z

Reasoning: Denver making the playoffs does not require David Njoku to sign there, and Njoku signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -84.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5900
Days to maturity: 92
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -88.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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